This sharp decline comes at a time when public skepticism about the value of higher education is growing, driven by concerns over affordability, debt, and job outcomes. The findings point to a generation losing confidence in the promise of higher education—particularly among those from families with no prior college experience. While media narratives increasingly question whether “college is worth it,” data from the College Board and other sources show that individuals with bachelor’s degrees consistently earn more, live longer, and participate more actively in civic life. This decline in aspirations poses a serious challenge for policymakers and educators committed to expanding opportunity and economic mobility. Without intervention, today’s high school students may face diminished prospects in a rapidly changing workforce that increasingly demands postsecondary credentials. Download supplemental tables here.

Key Findings

• Overall Decline in College Aspirations: Students expecting to earn at least a bachelor’s degree dropped from 72% in 2002 to 44% in 2022, a 28-point decline.
• Deepening Gaps by Parent Education: Among students with at least one parent who holds a bachelor’s degree, expectations fell from 83% to 53%. For first-generation students, the decline was even steeper—from 60% to 33%.
• Rising Uncertainty About the Future: The share of students who said they “did not know” what level of education they expected to achieve nearly tripled, from 10% in 2002 to 27% in 2022, suggesting growing anxiety about the affordability and value of college.
• Data Sources: Findings are drawn from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, including the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and High School and Beyond Study of 2022.