The Pell Institute

Research Briefs

The Pell Institute is proud to announce the release of a new set of fact sheets that illuminate critical insights into the experiences and outcomes of first-generation, low-income students, and students with disabilities. These fact sheets provide comprehensive national statistics and analysis, offering a detailed look at the unique challenges and achievements of these student populations across the United States. Each brief translates complex national datasets into clear insights for policymakers, journalists, educators, and advocates working to expand college opportunity for low-income, first-generation, and underrepresented students.

Featured RESEARCH BRIEF

Fewer Students Aspire to Earn a Bachelor’s Degree — Especially First-Generation Students

A new analysis from the Pell Institute finds that high school students’ aspirations to earn a bachelor’s degree have fallen to their lowest point in two decades. In 2022, only 44% of students expected to complete a four-year degree—down from 72% in 2002. Among first-generation students, expectations plummeted even further, from 60% in 2002 to 33% in 2022. This sharp decline comes at a time when public skepticism about the value of higher education is growing, driven by concerns over affordability, debt, and job outcomes. Yet research consistently shows that college remains a powerful engine for upward mobility, civic engagement, and health.

Key Findings

  • Overall Decline in College Aspirations: Students expecting to earn at least a bachelor’s degree dropped from 72% in 2002 to 44% in 2022, a 28-point decline.

  • Deepening Gaps by Parent Education: Among students with at least one parent who holds a bachelor’s degree, expectations fell from 83% to 53%. For first-generation students, the decline was even steeper—from 60% to 33%.

  • Rising Uncertainty About the Future: The share of students who said they “did not know” what level of education they expected to achieve nearly tripled, from 10% in 2002 to 27% in 2022, suggesting growing anxiety about the affordability and value of college.

  • Data Sources: Findings are drawn from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, including the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and High School and Beyond Study of 2022.

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