WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Education, the Council for Opportunity in Education’s (COE) research arm, released a new research brief today revealing a troubling decline in high school students’ expectations for attaining a bachelor’s degree.
In 2022, only 44% of surveyed students reported expecting to earn a bachelor’s degree—down sharply from 72% in 2002. This 20-year decline signals growing uncertainty among young people about their educational futures and raises serious concerns about long-term college access and economic mobility.
The report also underscores persistent disparities by parental education level. In 2002, 60% of first-generation students (i.e., those whose parents had only a high school diploma) aspired to earn a bachelor’s degree. By 2022, that number had fallen to just 33%. Among students with at least one parent holding a bachelor’s degree, aspirations dropped from 83% in 2002 to 53% in 2022
“The decline in college aspirations among first-generation students is deeply concerning,” said Kimberly Jones, president of the Council for Opportunity in Education. “These students have long faced systemic barriers to higher education, and this data underscores the urgent need for renewed investment in outreach, support, and affordability—including through programs like TRIO and the Pell Grant. We must ensure that every student, regardless of background, can envision a future that includes college and has the resources to make it a reality.”
The data for this report comes from discontinued nationally representative longitudinal surveys from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Without these programs, researchers will face serious challenges in tracking progress over time.
“The loss of the longitudinal surveys program and the staff supporting those programs is a great loss to the education community,” said Sean Simone, vice president of research at COE and director of the Pell Institute. “Without the continuation of these programs, it will be much harder to track the progress of high school, first-generation, and college students and to learn how to improve education outcomes.”
“Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years for Both First-Generation and Continuing Generation Students” was co-authored by Sean Simone, Ph.D., of the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education and Elise Christopher, Ph.D., of Agora Education Research.
Media Inquiries
For media inquiries or to arrange an interview, please contact Terrance L. Hamm, vice president for communications and marketing at COE via email at [email protected] or call (202) 347-7430.